Question 1

Сценарий A: Эскалация?

Accepted Answer

Germany and Poland initiate joint military exercises near the Polish-German border within 30 days after the defense agreement's signing. Russia deploys additional troops to its Kaliningrad enclave, escalating tensions in the region. Within 60 days, a series of diplomatic incidents occur between NATO members, with Germany and Poland accusing Russia of violating international agreements. This leads to heightened military activity on both sid (89% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Статус-кво?

Accepted Answer

Germany and Poland initiate joint military exercises near the Polish-German border within 30 days after the defense agreement's signing. Russia deploys additional troops to its Kaliningrad enclave, escalating tensions in the region. Within 60 days, a series of diplomatic incidents occur between NATO members, with Germany and Poland accusing Russia of violating international agreements. This leads to heightened military activity on both sid (7% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: Деэскалация?

Accepted Answer

Germany and Poland initiate joint military exercises near the Polish-German border within 30 days after the defense agreement's signing. Russia deploys additional troops to its Kaliningrad enclave, escalating tensions in the region. Within 60 days, a series of diplomatic incidents occur between NATO members, with Germany and Poland accusing Russia of violating international agreements. This leads to heightened military activity on both sid (4% model probability, not a guarantee)