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S9/10Military

West is entering new phase of war against Russia — senior legislator

Alexey Pushkov believes that actions such as providing Ukraine with intelligence for strikes on Russian industrial, military, and civilian targets are among the main indicators

Source: TASS EnglishOriginal source

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво

Pushkov's statements trigger increased Western military aid to Ukraine, including more precise targeting intelligence for strikes on Russian industrial facilities and critical infrastructure. This leads to a series of retaliatory attacks by Russia, escalating the conflict into full-scale confrontation with potential NATO intervention. Confirmation Indicators: Increased public statements from Western governments about providing Ukraine with

Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация

Pushkov's statements trigger increased Western military aid to Ukraine, including more precise targeting intelligence for strikes on Russian industrial facilities and critical infrastructure. This leads to a series of retaliatory attacks by Russia, escalating the conflict into full-scale confrontation with potential NATO intervention. Confirmation Indicators: Increased public statements from Western governments about providing Ukraine with

Horizon: 7–30 days

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