S9/10Military

West is entering new phase of war against Russia — senior legislator

Alexey Pushkov believes that actions such as providing Ukraine with intelligence for strikes on Russian industrial, military, and civilian targets are among the main indicators

22 Jun 2026, 09:43 UTCSource: TASS EnglishOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация90% model probability

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased military activity in Ukraine: Reports of escalating attacks on Russian infrastructure and increased deployment of troops in the region. Western sanctions tightening: Further restrictions imposed on Russia by Western countries, potentially targeting key industries or financial institutions. Diplomatic escalati
  • level officials in Western nations expressing
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво6% model probability

Pushkov's statements trigger increased Western military aid to Ukraine, including more precise targeting intelligence for strikes on Russian industrial facilities and critical infrastructure. This leads to a series of retaliatory attacks by Russia, escalating the conflict into full-scale confrontation with potential NATO intervention. Confirmation Indicators: Increased public statements from Western governments about providing Ukraine with

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased public statements from Western governments about providing Ukraine with
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация4% model probability

Pushkov's statements trigger increased Western military aid to Ukraine, including more precise targeting intelligence for strikes on Russian industrial facilities and critical infrastructure. This leads to a series of retaliatory attacks by Russia, escalating the conflict into full-scale confrontation with potential NATO intervention. Confirmation Indicators: Increased public statements from Western governments about providing Ukraine with

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased public statements from Western governments about providing Ukraine with
Horizon: 7–30 days