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S8/10Military

FirstFT: US and Iran hold high-stakes talks in Switzerland

Also in today’s newsletter: Philippines warns over Chinese military activity around Scarborough Shoal, and Keir Starmer’s premiership in doubt

Source: FT WorldOriginal source

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация

US and Iran engage in military exercises near disputed territories in the Persian Gulf. This escalates tensions as both sides increase deployments, leading to increased risk of direct confrontation. Confirmation Indicators: Increased activity from US Navy vessels in the region, Iranian naval maneuvers near contested areas, and public statements by officials expressing concerns over potential conflict. Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks

Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Статус-кво

US and Iran engage in military exercises near disputed territories in the Persian Gulf. This escalates tensions as both sides increase deployments, leading to increased risk of direct confrontation. Confirmation Indicators: Increased activity from US Navy vessels in the region, Iranian naval maneuvers near contested areas, and public statements by officials expressing concerns over potential conflict. Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks

Horizon: 7–14 days
C
Деэскалация

US and Iran engage in military exercises near disputed territories in the Persian Gulf. This escalates tensions as both sides increase deployments, leading to increased risk of direct confrontation. Confirmation Indicators: Increased activity from US Navy vessels in the region, Iranian naval maneuvers near contested areas, and public statements by officials expressing concerns over potential conflict. Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks

Horizon: 7–14 days

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