S7/10Economic

Sprake: SARB Likely to Hike Before Year-End

Traders are paring back their bets on further interest-rate hikes by the South African Reserve Bank after inflation came in lower than expected. But Casey Sprake, Market Strategist at AG Capital told Bloomberg’s Chief Africa Correspondent Jennifer Zabasajja, they are expecting another rate hike before the end of the year. (Source: Bloomberg)

18 Jun 2026, 05:46 UTCSource: Bloomberg MarketsOriginal source
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация50% model probability

SARB hikes rates again in November 2026 to combat persistent inflation concerns despite lower-than-expected June data. This triggers a market correction, with investors re-evaluating the risk of further rate hikes and potentially selling assets previously held for long-term growth. Confirmation indicators: The SARB's official statement on November 10th, 2026 explicitly mentions additional rate hikes are likely before year-end, followed by a

Confirmation indicators

  • The SARB's official statement on November 10th, 2026 explicitly mentions additional rate hikes are likely before year
  • end, followed by a
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво37% model probability

SARB hikes rates again in November 2026 to combat persistent inflation concerns despite lower-than-expected June data. This triggers a market correction, with investors re-evaluating the risk of further rate hikes and potentially selling assets previously held for long-term growth. Confirmation indicators: The SARB's official statement on November 10th, 2026 explicitly mentions additional rate hikes are likely before year-end, followed by a

Confirmation indicators

  • The SARB's official statement on November 10th, 2026 explicitly mentions additional rate hikes are likely before year
  • end, followed by a
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация14% model probability

SARB hikes rates again in November 2026 to combat persistent inflation concerns despite lower-than-expected June data. This triggers a market correction, with investors re-evaluating the risk of further rate hikes and potentially selling assets previously held for long-term growth. Confirmation indicators: The SARB's official statement on November 10th, 2026 explicitly mentions additional rate hikes are likely before year-end, followed by a

Confirmation indicators

  • The SARB's official statement on November 10th, 2026 explicitly mentions additional rate hikes are likely before year
  • end, followed by a
Horizon: 7–30 days