Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Disruptions in trade routes lead to increased prices and scarcity of sheep in Abidjan markets. This triggers panic buying by consumers, further driving up prices. Local traders raise prices even higher as they anticipate continued shortages. The situation escalates into a full-blown market crisis with potential for social unrest. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The current situation remains unchanged, with limited trade disruptions impacting the supply chain for sheep. Prices remain relatively stable, but gradually increase due to seasonal demand. Local authorities and traders implement measures to manage price increases, such as int (50% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Disruptions in trade routes lead to increased prices and scarcity of sheep in Abidjan markets. This triggers panic buying by consumers, further driving up prices. Local traders raise prices even higher as they anticipate continued shortages. The situation escalates into a full-blown market crisis with potential for social unrest. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The current situation remains unchanged, with limited trade disruptions impacting the supply chain for sheep. Prices remain relatively stable, but gradually increase due to seasonal demand. Local authorities and traders implement measures to manage price increases, such as int (37% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Disruptions in trade routes lead to increased prices and scarcity of sheep in Abidjan markets. This triggers panic buying by consumers, further driving up prices. Local traders raise prices even higher as they anticipate continued shortages. The situation escalates into a full-blown market crisis with potential for social unrest. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The current situation remains unchanged, with limited trade disruptions impacting the supply chain for sheep. Prices remain relatively stable, but gradually increase due to seasonal demand. Local authorities and traders implement measures to manage price increases, such as int (14% model probability, not a guarantee)

I. Coast faces sheep shortage ahead of Tabaski amid Sahel trade disruptions

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators