Before / after
The world moved. The desk arrived later.
“Before” is T₀. “After” is the first Oracle hit. The story is the lag — ORDER_LAG, LOW_SEVERITY, PARTIAL — not a made-up return.
C1 · Red Sea shipping · third-order supply chain
Before (T₀)
2023-11-19
Event in the world. Not yet in the Oracle event layer as a scored cascade.
After (first hit)
2025-01-27
T₀ missed; Oracle first captured rerouting narrative ~14 months late. Dashboard severity 6 without order tag.
Lag 14 months · ORDER_LAG
C2 · Sanctions / tech decoupling cascade
Before (T₀)
2024-06-12
Event in the world. Not yet in the Oracle event layer as a scored cascade.
After (first hit)
2025-06-04
EU/US tech sanctions T₀ absent in DB; Jun 2025 geopolitical cluster only. RegTech thesis zone, not live feature.
Lag 12 months · ORDER_LAG
C3 · USDRUB / CBR key rate macro cascade
Before (T₀)
2024-07-26
Event in the world. Not yet in the Oracle event layer as a scored cascade.
After (first hit)
2025-06-04
CBR 26 Jul 2024 hike missed; Jun 2025 CBR ops at severity 5 — below dashboard threshold. Ticker live, event layer quiet.
Lag 10 months · LOW_SEVERITY