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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Somali piracy rise tests China’s long-running Gulf of Aden mission

For more than a decade, China has deployed warships to the Gulf of Aden and the waters off Somalia. For much of that time, piracy in the region has been in sharp decline.

Now, however, with attacks at their highest reported level since 2013 and other naval forces engaged in crises elsewhere, Beijing’s long-running escort mission is being tested.

The renewed attacks and hijacking for ransom come as the US Navy focuses on operations connected to the war on Iran, and India sends ships towards the...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

66%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%