Economic··Severity 7
Federal Reserve defies Trump with first rate rise since 2023
Central bank signals willingness for further action as chair Kevin Warsh warns that ‘inflation is too high and has been for too long’
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
41%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%