Geopolitical··Severity 8
Russia Purges Its Last Anti-War Politicians
Ahead of the first State Duma elections since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, few are left to speak for peace.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
61%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Foreign Policy
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%