Geopolitical··Severity 8
Four years after Mahsa Amini's death, rights groups warn Tehran's crackdown persists
Human rights groups said those who directed the violent suppression of the 2022 protests still control Iran's security apparatus, as Kurdish businesses shuttered across her home region and the UN Special Rapporteur said four years of state violence had failed to extinguish the resistance.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
60%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Euronews
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%