Military··Severity 9
Middle Eastern countries disappointed with US security guarantees — ex-top diplomat
Antony Blinken said the US had no good military solution to the current conflict "absent a full-scale invasion of Iran, which would be a disaster"
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
76%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%