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Economic··Severity 7

Bond Market’s ‘Extreme’ Short Counts on Fed to Deliver Hike

Bond traders have piled into bearish positions ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, betting that the Treasury selloff driving yields to their highest in almost two decades will continue.

Steven Major, Global Macro Advisor at Tradition, discusses the case for a bond rally and falling yields. (Source: Bloomberg)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

38%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%