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Military··Severity 9

Latin America’s Balancing Act: Washington, Beijing, and the Post-Maduro Environment

The year 2026 has brought sweeping change to Latin America’s relationship with the United States. Following a major military buildup in the Caribbean and strikes against vessels suspected of drug trafficking, U.

S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan.

3 — unilaterally deposing the country’s leader and making new oil deals with the post-Maduro government.

Washington has also intensified economic and political pressure against Cuba, imposed more tariffs across the region, and said it would not renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, triggering renegotiations.

Meanwhile, Washington has deepened security cooperation with several countries, including shifting some funds from other regions The post Latin America’s Balancing Act: Washington, Beijing, and the Post-Maduro Environment appeared first on War on the Rocks.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

75%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: War on the Rocks

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%