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Military··Severity 9

‘War without battle’: Europe struggles to tackle mounting Russian hybrid attacks

Over the course of the summer, Russian attacks have been pushing ever deeper into European territory.

On August 11, military divers destroyed two drones floating off the coast of Romania near a €4 billion (US$4.7 billion) energy project.

Nine days later, Bucharest scrambled two F-16s to take out a maritime drone near the same Black Sea gas platform with hundreds of workers on board.

Earlier that month, German police detected an armed UAV at Leipzig airport, while this week Nato jets downed...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%