← Scenarios catalogue
Economic··Severity 7

Saudi oil pipeline closure puts Asia’s economic resilience to the test

Asian economies heavily dependent on imported energy are facing an even sharper squeeze after the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline removed a key escape route from the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, deepening an energy shock that has already pushed crude oil above US$100 a barrel.

Analysts said the loss of that bypass would hit Asian refiners first before feeding through to inflation, currencies and economic growth across the region. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

44%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%