What Is the Treasury Bonds Basis Trade, and Is It Over?
Global bond markets have been roiled since the Iran-US conflict began.
Surging energy prices together with massive corporate borrowing and ever-expanding government debt issuance have sent Treasury bond prices plummeting, pushing yields to the highest level in nearly two decades.
The rout prompted US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in August to increase buybacks of the government’s own longer-dated bonds, in an unusual intervention aimed at lowering Americans’ borrowing costs.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Bloomberg Markets
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%