Geopolitical··Severity 8
Russia votes in parliamentary election as war in Ukraine drags on
Polls opened in Russia's Far East on Friday as the country began three days of voting for its parliamentary election, the first since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Kremlin's main party, United Russia, is poised to keep its grip on power alongside other parties aligned with President Vladimir Putin, as the only party that criticised the war was removed from the ballot.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%