Geopolitical··Severity 8
Ukraine strikes continue as polling stations open in Russia
Russia and Ukraine traded strikes overnight as Russians prepared to vote in parliamentary elections in which the Kremlin's main party, United Russia, is poised to keep its grip on power, with the only party that criticised the war was removed from the ballot.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%