← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 8

North Korea’s nuclear tests awaken fault lines pointing to huge volcano at China border

North Korea’s underground nuclear tests have triggered a chain of seismic events, activating ancient fault lines that stretch towards one of the most dangerous volcanoes on Earth, about 100km (62 miles) away, according to a paper published by the journal Science.

The joint Chinese and South Korean study, which appeared on Thursday, found that the five nuclear explosions conducted between 2013 and 2017 at the Punggye-ri test site beneath Mount Mantap fundamentally altered the region’s geological...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

66%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%