Geopolitical··Severity 8
Ukraine fires drone barrage as Russia launches elections
Russia's first parliamentary election since the invasion opens with no antiwar party on the ballot.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
67%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%