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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Poland joins anti-ballistic missile coalition for Ukraine — Tusk

Back in July, the Polish prime minister said that Warsaw needed time to assess whether its defense capabilities would allow it to join the initiative

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

64%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: TASS English

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%