Geopolitical··Severity 8
Ukraine strikes DPR on eve of elections in failed attempt to derail them — official
Igor Kimakovsky said that Mariupol was among the areas targeted in the attacks, with the city experiencing a power outage for several hours
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%