← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 8

EU mulls compromise options on Usmanov sanctions to end French stand-off

Also in this newsletter: EU commissioner warns of AI ‘arms race’

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

62%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%