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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Iran and US held direct UN talks, with Islamic Republic's terms to reopen Hormuz hardening

Iran and US held direct UN talks, with Islamic Republic's terms to reopen Hormuz hardening Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff on Tuesday on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City to discuss terms to end their war, in the first public meeting between the two sides in months.

Multiple Gulf officials told Middle East Eye that their countries were trying to arrange a "bump-in" between US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, but the logistics were complicated.

Qatar took the lead among Gulf states in facilitating the meeting between Witkoff and Araghchi, a Gulf official told MEE. Gulf states were pressing for US-Iran talks at the UN in the days before the General Assembly.

Both Qatar and the UAE called for de-escalation and engagement with the Islamic Republic over the weekend.

Trump said on Tuesday that Iranian and US mediators held “very good” talks even as he used his address to the assembly to threaten to “annihilate” Iran.

Read more: Iran and US held direct UN talks, with Islamic Republic's terms to reopen Hormuz hardening Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives during the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters on 22 September 2026, in New York City (Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty Images/AFP)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

66%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%