Natural··Severity 9
How El Niño offers a test of whether the world can adapt to a changing climate
El Niño is strengthening in a world that is already hotter, raising the risk of drought, floods and crop losses across some of the world’s most important food-producing regions.
But unlike many disasters, this one can be seen coming.
UN experts say the months ahead offer countries a chance not only to protect the next harvest and our food security, but to prepare for a more unpredictable climate in the long run.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
52%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: UN News
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%