Geopolitical··Severity 8
US, Iran hold mediated UNGA talks on ending war, opening Strait of Hormuz
Tehran ties diplomatic progress to lifting shipping blockades and unfreezing assets during New York negotiations.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
55%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%