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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Ukraine’s Zelensky warns of painful winter for Russia if energy truce talks fail

President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Moscow at the United Nations on Wednesday that Ukraine would strike back and make the coming winter deeply painful for Russia, if the two sides cannot agree a truce on energy attacks before the cold sets in.

Ukraine and its allies are racing to secure limited agreements on energy infrastructure and Black Sea shipping before winter, fearing renewed Russian strikes on power and heating ‌facilities, while Moscow continues to show little interest in wider...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

72%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%