Geopolitical··Severity 8
In Taiwan, a Disaster Exercise Prepares for Conflict, Too
This year’s natural disaster drill sought to stress-test Taiwan against cascading, multisystem failures – with obvious implications for an invasion scenario as well as an earthquake.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
60%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: The Diplomat
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%