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Military··Severity 9

Seoul Needs a Playbook for Hormuz, Ukraine, and What Comes Next

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump shared a Washington Post opinion piece on his social media, arguing that South Korea should send its Cheongung-II air-defense system to Ukraine. S.

Additionally, the Trump administration continues to pressure Seoul to send troops to the Strait of Hormuz. Neither the U. S.

-Iranian conflict nor the Russo-Ukrainian War is new, yet the simultaneity of U. pressure on Seoul to help in its war with Iran and to support Ukraine is striking.

While such diverging asks are indeed unprecedented, this is partly due to a lack of principles that stipulate a clear South Korean position.

South Korea should The post Seoul Needs a Playbook for Hormuz, Ukraine, and What Comes Next appeared first on War on the Rocks.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: War on the Rocks

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%