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Economic··Severity 7

Traders Load Up on Hedges for Shallower Fed Rate-Hike Cycle

Traders are shielding themselves from the possibility that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates less than markets are currently pricing in.

Interest-rate swaps now reflect expectations for three quarter-point rate rises by next June, a view that solidified after central bank policymakers voted last week to raise their lending benchmark by a quarter point and signaled more increases will be needed to keep inflation at bay.

Phoebe White, Rates Strategist at UBS, discusses the path of rates and how many rate hikes we could see heading into 2027. (Source: Bloomberg)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

35%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%