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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Paraguay’s president urges UN to let Taiwan in, calls island’s exclusion ‘a stain’

Paraguayan President Santiago Pena told the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday that his country “is not neutral” on the Taiwan Strait, pledging support for the self-ruled island and calling for its “full and meaningful participation” in the UN system.

Casting a conflict in the strait as a potentially far greater threat than the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Pena warned of “ominous clouds gathering over the Indo-Pacific” and of a conflict that would hit Japan, the rest of East and...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

72%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%