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Geopolitical··Severity 8

New fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray region raises fears of a return to the country's civil war

Fighting in and around Tigray is testing Ethiopia's fragile 2022 peace deal. With old enemies forming new alliances, experts warn that the conflict could enter a dangerous new phase.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

54%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: DW World

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%