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Geopolitical··Severity 9

South Korea has ‘pragmatic’ plan for phased denuclearisation. But will North bite?

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s proposal for a phased approach to Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programmes is a pragmatic response, analysts say, but prospects for gaining its arch-rival’s acceptance remain uncertain.

In a keynote speech to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Lee laid out a long-term, step-by-step sequence for pursuing the ultimate goal of North Korea’s denuclearisation.

He had called for Washington to ease sanctions in return for North Korea stopping its nuclear...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

77%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%