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Military··Severity 9

‘Massive, maximum destruction’: Putin seeks to bring Ukrainian civilians ‘to their knees’

Mark Owen welcomes Peter Zalmayev from Kyiv, Founder and Director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative.

According to Zalmayev, Russia’s ongoing attacks on Ukraine reflect a broader political logic in which military force, political objectives and territorial ambitions are intertwined as instruments of Russian strategy.

He argues that Moscow’s attacks on civilian infrastructure are designed to exert extreme pressure on Ukrainian society while demonstrating fierce retaliation to domestic audiences in Russia.

Zalmayev contrasts this with Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, which he describes as targeting assets that directly sustain Moscow’s war effort.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Сценарии event-driven intelligence

Primary source: France24

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%