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Economic··Severity 7

Who has the upper hand in financial markets, the US or China?

As Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Washington for his much-anticipated summit with US President Donald Trump, it is clear which country emerged stronger from the tariff shock.

Last month, China’s exports rose 25 per cent in annualised terms, causing the country’s trade surplus to swell to US$119 billion and putting it on track to exceed last year’s record of US$1.2 trillion.

Moreover, China’s surplus with the US rose 44 per cent to US$29 billion, the widest gap since Trump returned to...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%