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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Tigrayan leaders say new war with Ethiopian govt has begun

The TPLF says war has kicked off with the federal forces, four years after the end of the last conflict in Tigray which killed more than 600,000 people.

The TPLF seized control of the airport in the capital of the northern region and fighting on the ground took place on the eastern border with Afar. )

It comes after months of tensions between Mekelle and Addis Ababa, and an announcement on Sunday of an alliance which aims to overthrow the prime minister. More from our correspondent Tom Canetti.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

65%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%