Geopolitical··Severity 8
Fighting Spreads in Ethiopia as Risk of Renewed Conflict Rises
Rebels in northern Ethiopia seized a second major airport and the government said it had killed 272 fighters as conflict spread in the east African nation, raising fears that the brutal civil war that ended in 2022 could flare up again.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Bloomberg Markets
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%