Military··Severity 9
Ethiopia's army says it has repelled attacks in first comment on fresh fighting
The military says its soldiers inflicted casualties as fears grow of a resumption of a full-blown civil war.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
80%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%