Geopolitical··Severity 8
Ethiopia's Tigray rebels in 'full-blown' war with govt
Tigray rebels in Ethiopia told AFP on Thursday they were in a state of "full-blown war" with the federal government, as heavy artillery attacks were reported in neighbouring states.
Tensions have been rising for months between the federal government and the authorities in the northern Tigray state, who fought a devastating civil war in 2020-2022 that killed more than 600,000 people, according to African Union estimates.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%