Geopolitical··Severity 8
Anti-migrant protest leader arrested after posting video stabbing a dinghy
Rightwing activist who calls himself Danny Tommo was also one of the organisers of a recent blockade of Dover
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
57%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%