China and the US can make nice, if not peace
Washington and Beijing have spent nearly a decade trading tariffs, export controls and blacklists, with each round threatening rupture. Yet they keep recovering from the brink.
Tensions soared before summits and plunged immediately after.
For example, in 2019 at Osaka, Trump walked back threats to impose tariffs on US$300 billion of Chinese goods and eased curbs on Huawei after Beijing reportedly agreed to buy American farm goods.
In Busan last October, he lowered tariffs and shelved export...
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: South China Morning Post
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%