Geopolitical··Severity 8
Are Ethiopians marching back to war in Tigray?
Exploring the issues behind the escalation of tensions between the TPLF and the national army.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%