Geopolitical··Severity 8
Kiev must understand provocations will not improve its position — Putin
The Russian leader emphasized that Ukraine had been the first to start striking Russian civilian infrastructure and should experience Russian retaliatory strikes
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%