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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Telecoms disruption raises fears as heavy fighting strikes Ethiopia

First, fighting continues between the Ethiopian forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front as fears of a regional spillover continue to mount.

Then, both the opposition and the ruling UDPS party continue to blame each other for the violence in the latest mass protest.

And, the Authenticity and Modernity party looks now to form a coalition to address the top voter issues including the cost of living crisis in Morocco.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

60%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%