The China Trade Problem That Tariffs Alone Can't Fix
China ran a $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year, many of its companies don't need to make a profit, and its exports are growing at two to three times the rate of the global economy.
Michael Froman, former US Trade Representative under President Obama and now president of the Council on Foreign Relations, tells us why Xi Jinping sees a consumer-led economy as a political threat, and what happens when China finally runs out of countries willing to buy.
(Source: Bloomberg)
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Bloomberg Markets
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%
