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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Why Pakistan’s endless war on militants fails to break the cycle

For over two decades, Pakistan has waged countless counterterrorism campaigns against Taliban and Baloch insurgents in its western regions bordering Afghanistan and Iran, yet remains mired in a cycle of violence it cannot break.

Scores of soldiers, policemen and civilians are killed every month in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and southwestern Balochistan provinces, where near-daily attacks on security personnel, government officials and other prominent figures are carried out by...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

67%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%