Geopolitical··Severity 8
Trump rejects Iran’s ceasefire proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Tehran offered a week-long break in hostilities to kick-start peace talks aimed at ending seven-month-long conflict
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
48%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%