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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Iran War Endgame Remains Elusive

Bloomberg Mideast geoeconomics lead Dina Esfandiary tells Bloomberg This Weekend that a protracted Iran war, marked by cycles of escalation and pauses in fighting, is a key scenario as deep divisions over the Strait of Hormuz complicate diplomacy.

Speaking with hosts David Gura and Christina Ruffini, Esfandiary says Gulf Arab states are pressing to avoid further escalation as they seek to limit the economic and security damage from the conflict.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

72%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

Ваши вероятности A/B/C

C 33%