Military··Severity 8
Iran claims seizure of an underwater US drone in Hormuz, US denies the claim
Iran's Revolutionary Guards claim that the vehicle is a REMUS 600 and has been handed over to Iranian military experts "to retrieve its data," but the US military denies the claim.
Top Iranian army commander says "the war is not over" and that it is now in "a critical and decisive stage".
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
72%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Euronews
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%