Economic··Severity 7
Can Iran shift trade north to Caspian Sea as war impairs Strait of Hormuz?
Iran is looking for alternatives to export its oil as the US blockades its southern ports.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
47%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
Ваши вероятности A/B/C
C 33%